Review of 2017, Outlook for 2018

Please click the link below to view Shane Oliver's review of investment markets for 2017, and the outlook for 2018.

Key points raised are :

  • Despite the usual worry list 2017 has been pretty good for investors as global growth and profits accelerated and central banks stayed benign as inflation stayed low.
  • The sweet spot combination of solid global growth and profits and yet low inflation is likely to continue in 2018. 
  • However US inflation is likely to start to stir and the US Fed is likely to get a bit more aggressive. Expect a gradual rise in bond yields and a rising US dollar.
  • The RBA is unlikely to start hiking rates until late 2018 at the earliest.
  • Most growth assets are likely to trend higher, but expect more volatility and more constrained returns. Australian shares are likely to remain laggards.
  • The main things to keep an eye on are 
    • the risks around Trump
    • inflation
    • the US Fed and the US dollar
    • bond yields
    • the Italian election
    • China
    • Australian property prices