Five constraints on medium term investment returns

 

Please click here to view Shane Oliver's views on medium term investment returns.

Key points raised are:

Five megatrends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures and lower economic growth than pre-pandemic, these are :

  • A move away from economic rationalist policies
  • The reversal of globalisation
  • Rising geopolitical tensions
  • Climate change and decarbonisation
  • Slowing and aging population

A productivity boost from artifical intelligence should provide some partial offset.  But taken together this will likely constrain medium term returns.