China - tariff treat, implications for Australia

 

Please click here to view Shane Oliver's thoughts on the implications for Australia from the issues impacting the Chinese economy.

 

Key points raised are:

  • Chinese growth is running around 5% and while threats remain high – with the property downturn and tariffs – policy stimulus is likely to be enough to keep growth okay.
  • However, longer term structural challenges – around excess saving, demographics and state control – will likely see growth slow to around 3% pa over the next decade.
  • Australia is now less sensitive to China, but Chinese growth is likely to be enough to keep the iron ore price elevated.