2025 Macro Investment Outlook

 

Please click the link below to view Shane Oliver's views on the marco investment outlook for 2025.

Key points raised are :

  • 2024 was a strong year for investors with shares up strongly on the back of better than expected growth and profits, and global central banks cutting rates.  Volatility was low and balanced growth super funds returned around 11%
  • 2025 is likely to see positive returns but after the strong gains of the last two years it is likely to be more volatile and constrained.
  • We expect the RBA to cut the cash rate to 3.6% with the first cut looking like it could be in February, the ASX to return around 7% and balanced super funds to return around 6%.  Australian residential property prices are likely to soften further ahead of support from rate cuts.
  • The key things to watch are : interest rates, recession risk, a likely trade war, China and the Australian consumer.