US Economic Expansion - Is there a recession coming?

Please click on the link below to read Shane Oliver's views on the US economy.

The key points raised are :

  • Where the US economy goes is critical to the outlook for shares, including the Australian share market.
  • While the yield curve is flashing warning signals and issues around trade and Iran could cause short-term volatility, the excesses that normally precede US recessions - a spending boom, surging private debt and /or rising inflation/tight monetary policy - are absent.
  • This along with the combination of easing monetary conditions globally, is likely to see growth continue suggesting that US, and hence global and Australian shares, are likely to be higher in 6-12 months' time.